AGP Executive Report

Tunisia-Yemen Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Nafti spoke by phone with Yemen’s Afrah al-Zouba on containing the Yemeni crisis and boosting bilateral cooperation in economic, cultural and scientific fields. Labour & Digital Governance: Tunisia plans a digital labour-management platform in September 2026 to strengthen labour inspection, improve monitoring and deliver updated social and labour statistics. Water & Agriculture Spending: The Agriculture Ministry says it oversees 90+ major projects, with 1.251bn dinars for the “Water” programme, including dams, desalination and rural drinking-water distribution. Trade Pressure: Tunisia’s trade deficit widened to TND 17.85bn by end-August 2026 as energy and capital-goods imports weighed, while exports rose 8% led by agri-food and olive oil. Electricity Outlook: An energy consultant says renewables help but won’t solve Tunisia’s power problem alone, citing a peak-demand gap and delays in key projects. Business Performance: TPR reported H1 2026 revenue down 13.2% to 96m dinars, while net income held near 17.7m dinars. Social Support: Tunisia added 67m dinars for 2026-27 back-to-school assistance, including cash, supplies and free transport for eligible families. Regional Finance Signal: J.P. Morgan’s frontier bond index includes Nigeria (7.4% weight) and lists Tunisia at 5.32%, highlighting investor focus on reforms. Sports Finance: CAF will grant $100,000 to clubs eliminated in preliminary rounds, including those knocked out before the group stage.

Detention & Civil Society: Tunisia extended the detention of the “Sumud 4” flotilla activists by four more months; one hunger striker is reported in critical condition, while lawyers and supporters denounce the charges as politically motivated. Aviation & Trade Links: Canada announced an expanded air transport agreement with Tunisia, adding up to seven weekly passenger-combination flights per side and unlimited weekly all-cargo rights. Labour & Digital Governance: Tunisia plans a digital platform for labour management and labour inspection, aiming to improve monitoring, update social-labour statistics, and support preventive interventions. Water & Agriculture Spending: The Agriculture Ministry says it oversees 90+ major projects on the presidential monitoring platform, with water taking the biggest budget share (2.064bn dinars total; 1.251bn for water). Electricity & Energy Mix: An energy consultant argues renewables are part of the fix but not the whole solution, citing STEG power-cut pressures from demand exceeding production. Trade Balance Pressure: Tunisia’s trade deficit widened to TND 17.85bn by end-August 2026, driven mainly by energy and capital goods, while exports rose 8% (notably agri-food and olive oil). Human Rights: Rights groups warn that at least 23 prisoners have died in recent weeks from extreme heat amid overcrowding and poor conditions.

Tunisia–EU Economic Link: A new analysis warns that France’s near-zero growth and rising energy costs could hit Tunisia hard, given France’s role as a top export market and investor, with Tunisia facing a double shock from weaker demand and a higher energy bill. Back-to-School Support: The government has mobilised 67 million dinars for the 2026-2027 school and university year, including cash/in-kind aid for poor families and free transport. Energy Security & Trade Balance: Oil stays above $100 after an attack near the Strait of Hormuz, raising pressure on Tunisia’s already large energy trade deficit (TND 8.93bn in the first eight months). Cross-Border Trade: A report highlights how movement across Ras Ajdir and Dhehiba keeps trade and livelihoods flowing between Libya and Tunisia, beyond migration and security concerns. Prison Heatwave Crisis: NGOs say at least 23 prisoners have died in recent weeks due to extreme heat, as authorities have not released official figures. Corporate Results: Land’Or reports a sharp rebound in H1 2026, with exports surging 67% after letters of credit reopened with Libya; Telnet Holding also posts higher H1 profits. Business Diplomacy: A delegation of 22 Austrian companies is set to visit Tunis on Sept. 29 to explore deals in green energy, hydrogen, infrastructure and environmental tech. Education & Skills: ENSIT sends 13 students to China for a year-long programme covering AI, machine learning, generative AI and hands-on projects with tech and electric-vehicle firms. Media Freedom: RSF and journalist groups report the detention and worsening health of journalist Mohamed El Yousfi amid a financial investigation tied to his reporting on water policy.

Tunisia–Libya Trade & Mobility: A new analysis highlights how cross-border movement between Libya and Tunisia—especially via Ras Ajdir and Dhehiba—acts as an “open-air marketplace,” supporting both communities and wider formal and informal trade. Energy & Markets: Another attack near the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil above $100, with Tunisia’s energy trade deficit reaching TND 8.93bn in the first eight months of 2026, underscoring how shipping risks can hit the economy. Prison Conditions Under Heatwave: NGOs warn that extreme heat has killed at least 23 prisoners in recent weeks, citing overcrowding and poor detention conditions amid power and water cuts. Business & Finance: Land’Or reports an 81% jump in H1 2026 net profit, driven by a sharp export rebound linked to renewed letters of credit with Libya. Corporate Earnings: Telnet Holding posts a 22% rise in H1 2026 net profit, with exports dominating revenue. Infrastructure & Regional Deals: Libya’s National Development Authority says it is ready to invest in Tunis-Carthage Airport upgrades or a new airport. International Cooperation: ENSIT sends 13 students to China for a year-long programme mixing AI, data, Python and generative AI with company-based training. Media Freedom: Women Journalists Without Chains calls for urgent medical care for detained journalist Mohamed El Yousfi.

Prison Heat Tragedy: Tunisia’s League for Human Rights says at least 23 prisoners died in recent weeks from extreme heat, warning that overcrowding and poor conditions are turning heatwaves into a lethal risk, while authorities have not yet published official figures. Media Crackdown: Women Journalists Without Chains says journalist Mohammed El Yousfi’s health has sharply deteriorated in custody, after he was arrested over a water-policy programme and questioned on alleged financial crimes. Corporate Earnings: Land’Or reports an 81% jump in H1 2026 net profit, driven by a 67% export rebound linked to renewed letters of credit with Libya. Business Missions: 22 Austrian companies are set to visit Tunis on Sept. 29 for B2B talks focused on green energy, hydrogen, renewables, infrastructure and environmental tech. Public Works & Infrastructure: Telnet Group posts a 22% rise in H1 net profit, with exports dominating revenue. Transport Disruption: Kerkennah ferry schedules for Sept. 12-13 may face weather-related changes.

Tunisia Prison Heat Crisis: NGOs say at least 23 prisoners have died in recent weeks from extreme heat, citing overcrowding and poor conditions, while authorities have not released official figures. Media & Water Policy Crackdown: Journalist Mohamed El Yousfi (Al-Katiba) remains in custody as rights groups report worsening health after denied medical care, following his arrest tied to a water-policy appearance and financial-crimes allegations. Corporate Earnings: Land’Or reports an 81% jump in H1 2026 net profit, driven by a sharp export rebound linked to reopened letters of credit with Libya; Telnet Holding posts a 22% rise in H1 net profit on cost control and heavy export exposure. Business Diplomacy: 22 Austrian companies are set to visit Tunis on Sept. 29 for B2B talks, targeting green energy, hydrogen, renewables, infrastructure and environmental tech. Labour Watch: UGTT reaffirms plans for a nationwide general strike, with escalation steps to be coordinated with civil society. Transport Disruption: Kerkennah ferry schedules for Sept. 12-13 may face weather-related disruptions.

Prison & Human Rights: Tunisia’s rights groups say at least 23 prisoners have died in recent weeks from extreme heat, citing overcrowding and poor detention conditions, while authorities have not released official figures. Media Freedom: RSF and other watchdogs call for the release of journalist Mohamed Yousfi, detained after a water-crisis programme was planned, with an investigation linked to a social media post and alleged financial crimes. Labour & Economy: UGTT reaffirmed plans for a nationwide general strike, with preparations for escalating union action as tensions with authorities grow. Corporate Earnings: Poulina Group Holding reported a 29.4% jump in H1 2026 net profit to 94.9m dinars, while other business coverage highlights firms entering the “new economic season” with limited resources. Banking & Sovereign Risk: Fitch affirmed Tunisia at B- with a stable outlook, warning that the state’s financing approach and reserve weakness keep pressure on the banking sector. Energy & Trade: IEA data points to a sharp fall in global oil inventories since February, while Tunisia’s business news also includes new investment approvals in agriculture and fisheries. Water & Infrastructure: SONEDE announced water disruptions in Radès, and Tunisia’s water scarcity mapping continues to draw attention. Digital Connectivity: A contract worth CFA1.38bn was awarded to install Wi‑Fi networks at six Cameroon airports, underscoring regional infrastructure momentum.

Corporate Earnings: Tunisian conglomerate Poulina Group Holding (PGH) posted a 29.4% jump in H1 2026 net profit to 94.9m dinars, with revenues up 7.9% to 1.866bn dinars, supported by resilient margins. Banking & Risk: Fitch affirmed Tunisia’s B- sovereign rating (stable outlook) but flagged the cost of monetary financing and weak reserves, warning that an early end to this support could pressure the banking sector. Entrepreneurship: The National Entrepreneurs Organization says Tunisia’s early growth signals (Q2 GDP +2.3%, industrial output +1.5%) are still not a takeoff, as inflation hits 5.4% and many firms enter the new season with depleted resources. Energy & Industry: Libya’s NOC welcomed Mellitah’s KK station gas recovery project, targeting 15m cubic feet/day to boost supplies and cut emissions via a “zero gas flaring” push. Water Crisis: Tunisia’s Water Observatory “Thirst Map” for August reports 361 drinking-water interruptions from 402 complaints, with Mahdia, Ben Arous and Ariana among the most affected. Trade & Compliance: Siliana authorities carried out 55 inspections ahead of the school year, citing price hikes, missing price tags, conditional sales and concealed goods. Renewables Research: A Tunis University team developed an IoT-controlled, jute-based low-water evaporative cooling system for PV modules, aimed at arid-climate performance. Regional Security/Trade: Houthis claim they shot down nine Saudi warplanes since Sept. 3, while also saying Red Sea navigation is safe for most companies except those linked to Saudi blockade. Mobility & Visas: South Korea’s K-ETA list includes Tunisia, alongside Morocco and seven other African countries, enabling visa-free electronic entry.

Water Crisis Watch: Tunisia’s Water Observatory says the “Thirst Map” for August recorded 361 drinking-water interruptions from 402 reports, with Mahdia (41) and Ben Arous (37) leading complaints and 24 citizen protests reported. Energy & Investment: Tunisia approved 309 solar projects totaling 455 MW in its sixth licensing round, mainly for small investors (187 projects capped at 1 MW), with power sold to STEG under long-term PPAs. Labour & Politics: UGTT authorized a campaign of action that could include a general strike, warning of a worsening economic and social crisis. Banking & Retail Results: BNA Assurances reported H1 2026 net profit of 8.5m dinars (+17.5%), while Monoprix Tunisia posted H1 revenue of 412.1m dinars (+7.5%) and returned to positive operating profit. Powering Growth: UBCI said H1 2026 assets rose to 6.218bn dinars (+9.3%), with customer loans up 11.6% and deposits up 8.5%. Governance & Rights: Amnesty International renewed calls to release opposition leader Rached Ghannouchi over due-process violations. Regional Trade Context: A Houthi spokesman claimed Red Sea trade and navigation remain “safe and regular,” despite ongoing operations.

US Visa Policy: The US published the full E-2 treaty investor visa list, with 10 African countries included (including Egypt, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville and Congo-Kinshasa), meaning eligibility hinges on a bilateral investment treaty. Tunisia—Media Freedoms: FAPAJ urged Tunisia to immediately release journalist Mohamed El Yousfi, denouncing arrests and intimidation aimed at silencing critical reporting. Tunisia—Protests & Labour: The UGTT warned of a worsening economic and social crisis and authorized a campaign that could include a general strike. Tunisia—Justice & Health: Amnesty International called for the release of opposition leader Rached Ghannouchi, citing due-process violations and serious health concerns. Tunisia—Economy & Finance: BNA Assurances reported H1 net profit above 8 million dinars; Monoprix Tunisia posted H1 revenue up 7.5% with net profit rising; UBCI highlighted profitable growth in H1; and a Central Bank review says non-resident (offshore) banks’ role is shrinking to about 3.5% of the sector. Energy & Industry: Tunisia approved 455 MW in its sixth solar authorization round (309 projects), mainly targeting small investors under capped schemes. Infrastructure: SONEDE announced a drinking-water disruption in Radès after a technical failure, with restoration expected from 6pm. Business & Investment: FIPA-Tunisia and the Tunisia Investment Authority visited Mediwood Studios in Hammamet, pointing to nearly $5m in production investment over the next three months.

Renewables & Energy: Tunisia approved 309 solar projects under its sixth authorization round, totaling 455 MW—more than double the 200 MW target—mostly aimed at small investors, with power sold exclusively to STEG under long-term PPAs. Coastal Development: Environment Minister Habib Abid says Tunisia’s coastline from Bizerte to Djerba will be developed, including a ~100 million dinar redevelopment of Bizerte’s Corniche beach with groynes and large-scale sand nourishment. Gold Watch: Sfax jewellers report a jump in international gold to about $4,404 per ounce, while Tunisia’s market remains cautious, with scrap 18-carat around 300–305 dinars/gram and new 18-carat 390–405. Civic Space & Media: Tunisian journalists protested the arrest and detention extension of investigative journalist Mohamed Yousfi, amid wider claims of pressure on independent voices. Labour: UGTT’s national administrative body meets to review trade union files and broader national issues. Trade & Investment: CEPEX will host BTP sector business meetings in Cameroon (Yaoundé/Douala) from Oct 27–29 to link Tunisian firms with local partners. Business Climate: World Bank’s Business Ready 2025 places Tunisia in the 4th quintile, with weakest scores in public services and business insolvency.

Tunisia Credit Watch: Fitch affirmed Tunisia’s long-term rating at “B-” with a Stable Outlook, citing resilience but flagging high public debt, fiscal deficits, subsidy pressure and financing needs; it expects the current account deficit to widen in 2026 before improving in 2027-28. Press Freedom: Tunisian journalists protested the arrest and detention of investigative journalist Mohamed Yousfi on alleged illicit enrichment and money-laundering charges, with rights groups warning of a broader crackdown on independent voices. Labour Politics: The UGTT national administrative body met to review trade-union files and broader national issues. Trade & Tourism: CEPEX will host B2B meetings for Tunisia’s construction and building materials sector in Cameroon (Yaoundé/Douala) from Oct 27-29; meanwhile, Tunisia saw +8.4% Algerian arrivals Jan-Aug 2026, though hotel bookings declined. Energy & Renewables: Tunisia allocated 455 MW of PV in its sixth licensing round. Regional Business Links: Vietnam’s ambassador to Tunisia pushed for deeper cooperation with Tunisian institutions (FIPA, CEPEX, CCIT, UTICA) in areas like software outsourcing, EVs, textiles, olive oil, agriculture and energy.

Press Freedom Under Pressure: Tunisian journalists protested outside a court in Tunis demanding the release of investigative journalist Mohamed Yousfi, arrested last Friday on alleged illicit enrichment and money-laundering charges; his lawyer says there is no concrete evidence and rights groups warn of a widening crackdown on independent voices. Credit & Housing Signals: Central Bank data show outstanding non-professional bank loans to individuals in Tunisia edged up to TND 30.662bn by end-June 2026, with housing loans falling while home-improvement and car/consumer lending rose. Ratings Watch: Fitch affirmed Tunisia’s long-term rating at “B-” with a Stable Outlook, citing resilient external accounts and diversification but flagging high debt, fiscal deficits, subsidy vulnerability and financing needs. Investment Climate: Tunisia slid to 164th in the 2026 Investment Freedom Index, with weak scores on corruption and financial freedom pointing to persistent investor concerns. Trade & Exports: Tunisian agri-food exports to Jordan surged, with packaged olive oil exports reaching TND 156m and volumes above 11,000 tons by end-July. Banking Sector: ARTES (Renault/Dacia dealer) reported H1 2026 net profit up 8.6% to TND 27.4m despite revenue down 27%, driven by higher investment income.

Tunisia Press Freedom Under Fire: Tunisian journalists protested in Tunis demanding the release of investigative editor Mohamed Yousfi, arrested last Friday on illicit enrichment and money-laundering charges; rights groups and the SNJT say the case is part of a wider crackdown and warn of a climate of fear. Credit & Banking Watch: Fitch affirmed Tunisia’s long-term rating at “B-” with a stable outlook, citing resilient external buffers and a diversified economy but flagging high public debt, fiscal deficits and subsidy pressure. Household Lending Trends: Central Bank data show outstanding non-professional loans to individuals in Tunisia edged up to TND 30.662bn by end-June 2026, with housing loans down while home-improvement and car/consumer lending rose. Public Health Hiring: Tunisia’s Health Ministry opened a credentials-based recruitment drive for 52 public health pharmacists (52 posts; deadline Oct. 23, competition opening Nov. 23). Energy & Water Strain Context: Reports highlight ongoing living-standard stress from summer shortages, including water distribution issues and power cuts affecting daily life. Regional Trade & Energy: Tunisia and Iraq discussed boosting bilateral trade, including access for Iraqi sulphur to the Tunisian market, while a Tunisia-Libya joint oil bid round was announced for the Zarat discovery.

Water & Power Crisis: Tunisians describe a summer of shortages as STEG implemented temporary power cuts and SONEDE struggled with electric pumping needs, leaving long lines for rationed mineral water in Tunis and across regions. Press Freedom Under Pressure: Journalist Mohamed Yousfi’s detention was extended by 48 hours in a financial-crimes probe, while the Committee to Protect Journalists and the Tunisian Journalists’ Union denounced the case as judicial harassment of independent media. EU Calls for Pluralism: The European Union urged Tunisia to ensure political pluralism and fair-trial guarantees, criticizing how diplomatic communications are used in charges after the Court of Cassation upheld harsh sentences in a “conspiracy” case. Renewables Push: Tunisia approved 455 MW of solar PV in its sixth licensing round via 309 projects, with electricity sold to STEG under long-term power purchase agreements. Trade & Regional Links: Iraq and Tunisia held Arab League economic talks to boost bilateral trade, including access for Iraqi sulphur exports. Tunisia-Libya Border Friction: A human-rights observer says persistent difficulties keep cross-border trade and movement at border crossings under strain, despite recent calls between top officials. Maritime Security: Exercise Phoenix Express 2026 began at La Goulette, aiming to strengthen southern Mediterranean maritime cooperation and counter illegal activities.

Iveco Takeover: Tata has launched a €3.82bn cash bid for Iveco at €14.10 per share, aiming to buy 100% and delist from Milan, with Exor already committed—an African footprint story given Tata’s assembly and sales network across Tunisia and Iveco’s truck and service presence. Tunisia-Libya Energy: A new bid round opens on 7 September for development of the Zarat discovery and further exploration in the Joint Oil Block, with packages covering exploration and unitised development across the border. Solar Investment: Tunisia approved 309 solar PV projects in its sixth licensing round for a total 455 MW, oversubscribed versus 200 MW sought, with power sold to STEG under long-term contracts. EU Political Pressure: The EU urged Tunisia to ensure political pluralism and fair trial guarantees, citing concerns over charges and the upholding of harsh sentences in a “conspiracy” case. Press Freedom Under Fire: Tunisian authorities extended journalist Mohamed Yousfi’s detention by 48 hours in a financial-crimes probe, while the Committee to Protect Journalists and local unions demand his release. Cross-border Trade Friction: Tunisia-Libya border crossings remain difficult, with officials pointing to unresolved local and regional issues despite recent calls to improve movement. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ kept October output unchanged after a virtual review, maintaining the group’s agreed production levels.