AGP Executive Report

Press Freedom Under Pressure: Tunisian authorities detained investigative journalist Mohamed Yousfi as he arrived for a radio interview, with charges cited as illicit enrichment and money laundering; the SNJT and rights groups say the case reflects shrinking civic space and intimidation. Judicial Clampdown: Tunisia’s Court of Cassation upheld prison sentences of up to 45 years in a major conspiracy case involving opposition figures, lawyers and businessmen, a ruling lawyers say is final and unappealable. Civil Society Crackdown: Human Rights Watch warned of systematic repression of Tunisia’s civil society since 2024, citing arrests, prosecutions, financial investigations and threats of dissolution. Cybersecurity Push: The Prime Minister issued a circular requiring stronger protection of public institutions’ digital systems, including hosting rules, HTTPS, multi-factor authentication and annual security audits. Banking & Finance: BNA reported a 14% rise in H1 net profit to about TND 156m, supported by higher deposits and investment income. Tourism & Remittances: Tunisia’s tourism revenues and remittances continued to support foreign-currency reserves, with August end figures showing year-on-year gains. Energy & Industry: The El Fahs 75MW wind farm was selected for Japanese support under the JCM, while olive oil production is expected to drop sharply in 2026–27.

Cybersecurity Push: Tunisia’s Prime Minister issued a circular making tighter protection of public digital systems mandatory, including hosting rules, HTTPS, multi-factor authentication, and annual information-system audits. Civil Society Under Pressure: Human Rights Watch warns of systematic repression of Tunisia’s civil society since 2024, while Al-Khatt’s threatened dissolution over independent investigative work raises fresh alarms for civic space and media freedom. Opposition Sentences Upheld: Tunisia’s Court of Cassation upheld prison terms up to 45 years in a mass conspiracy case against opposition figures, lawyers and businessmen, with critics saying the judiciary is not independent. Banking Results: BNA reported a 14% jump in H1 profit to about TND 156m, supported by higher deposits and stronger investment income. Tourism & FX: Remittances and tourism revenues topped TND 11.6bn by end-August, with net foreign currency reserves around 99 days of imports. Energy & Renewables: El Fahs’ 75 MW wind farm was selected for Japanese grant support under the JCM, boosting low-carbon generation plans. Agriculture Outlook: Olive oil production is expected to fall sharply in 2026–27, with forecasts of 300,000 tons versus 500,000 last season.

Tunisia Politics & Courts: Tunisia’s Court of Cassation has upheld final prison sentences of up to 45 years for 40 opposition figures, closing a three-year mass case over alleged conspiracy to overthrow President Kais Saied; lawyers and families say the judiciary is not independent and that several defendants were effectively “silenced,” with many sentenced in absentia. Civil Society & Rights: A joint statement by UGTT, the Bar Association and the League for Human Rights warns of a deep political, economic and social crisis, citing restrictions on unions and civil society, alleged manipulation of the judiciary, and worsening conditions in prisons and detention. Banking & Regulation: Tunisia’s Central Bank (BCT) and the Financial Market Council (CMF) signed a cooperation and information-sharing agreement to strengthen integrated supervision, align with international standards, and improve oversight of risks including AML/CFT. Banking Results: Attijari Bank reported H1 2026 net profit of 123 million dinars (+5.9%) and higher net banking income, while noting tighter lending selectivity. Energy & Business Impact: Coverage of STEG power cuts highlights how firms are shifting to self-generation, with knock-on costs and potential demand for generator imports. Renewables Deal: Japan’s Carbon Credit Exchange Mechanism will support Tunisia’s 75 MW El Fahs wind project, alongside other commissioned solar plants. Trade & Agriculture: Tunisia’s fishery trade posted a TND 66.7m surplus in H1 2026, with Italy the top destination. Regional Trade Risk: EU officials warn Russia’s Black Sea blockade could trigger another food-security shock affecting grain exports to countries including Tunisia. Fashion & Industry: Tunisian textile firm PigmentOco won an Avantex Fashion Pitch award for low-water dyeing using supercritical CO₂, signaling export-facing innovation in Tunisia’s value chain.

Tunisia’s finance watchdogs: Tunisia’s Central Bank (BCT) and the Financial Market Council (CMF) signed a cooperation and information-sharing deal to tighten financial sector supervision, align with international standards, and improve coordination on risks including anti-money laundering. Banking results: Attijari Bank reported H1 2026 net profit of TND 123m (+5.9% y/y), with net banking income up to TND 374.7m, driven by a surge in investment portfolio revenues. Energy squeeze on firms: Power cuts have pushed businesses toward self-generation, with STEG trust “broken” and companies planning for generators as a new operating cost. Trade and jobs signals: Tunisia’s fishery trade posted a TND 66.7m surplus in H1 2026, while an El Fahs 75 MW wind project secured a Japanese government grant under the Paris Article 6 carbon credit mechanism. Civil society pressure: Rights groups warn Tunisia is widening its crackdown on civil society, with prosecutions, long detentions and prison sentences affecting activists and journalists. Regional risk to food: A renewed Black Sea blockade linked to Russia-Ukraine tensions is raising fears of another global food shock, with knock-on effects for Tunisia and nearby importers.

Tunisia’s lending momentum: Bank loans to businesses rose by TND 2.199 billion in the first half of 2026, with the services sector driving most of the increase (TND 1.684 billion), according to the Central Bank’s Economic Outlook report. Public-sector reform: Prime Minister Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri urged faster structural reforms for public enterprises, setting six priorities including clearer performance targets, stronger oversight, and better asset and HR management. Civil society under pressure: Human Rights Watch says Tunisia is escalating a crackdown on NGOs, citing prosecutions, preventive detention beyond legal limits, and mass suspensions, warning the aim is to shut civil society down. Food waste plan: Tunisia’s National Consumer Institute says household food waste is about 5% of total food spending, and a national strategy is expected by end-November. Phosphate update: PhosCo reported high-grade phosphate intersections at its Gasaat project in Kasserine, supporting plans for an integrated phosphate and fertilizer push. Transport service: SNCFT published long-distance train schedules valid Sep 1, 2026–Jun 30, 2027 (excluding Ramadan). Gold prices in Sfax: The Sfax jewellery market sees a drop in gold prices, with scrap 18-carat trading around 280–300 dinars/gram. Regional business links: Egypt and Oman are exploring joint industrial zones to deepen industrial integration and supply chains.

Public Finance & Governance: Tunisia’s Prime Minister Sarra Zaafrani Zenzri urged faster structural reform of public enterprises, pushing clearer performance targets, stronger oversight, asset management, digitalisation and transparency to restore efficiency and financial sustainability. Civil Society Under Pressure: Human Rights Watch says Tunisia is escalating its crackdown on NGOs and activists, citing prosecutions, preventive detention beyond legal limits, financial investigations and mass suspensions, warning the aim is to shut down civic space. Regional Industry Integration: Egypt and Oman are exploring joint industrial zones using Egypt’s “industrial developer” model to deepen investment links and supply chains. Transport & Mobility: SNCFT published long-distance train schedules from Sept 1, 2026 to June 30, 2027 (excluding Ramadan), including Tunis–Kalaat Khasba, Tunis–Annaba/Bizerte and Tunis–Tozeur/Métlaoui–Redeyef/Nabeul. Finance & Markets: Tunisia’s money market rate rose to 7% in August, while a separate report ranks the Tunisian dinar among Africa’s strongest currencies against the US dollar. Sports Tech: CAF is reportedly preparing to introduce VAR in the CAF Champions League group stage, starting with the 2026/27 edition. Energy & Water Crunch: Tunisia’s power cuts are again disrupting water supplies, adding pressure on businesses and daily operations. Humanitarian & Rights: A Brazilian activist renewed calls for the release of four Tunisian colleagues linked to the Global Sumud Flotilla, detained again after a prior release.

Civil Society Crackdown: Human Rights Watch says Tunisia has intensified pressure on civil society since 2024, with arrests, long preventive detention, financial probes, mass suspensions and convictions, warning the civic space is being “shut” through abusive prosecutions and threats of dissolution. Power & Business Continuity: STEG warns of intermittent power cuts on Sept 1 from 1 p.m. to 6 p.m. in Greater Tunis, North, Northwest, Central Tunisia, Sfax and parts of the South—an operational risk for IT, refrigeration and production. Monetary Policy Watch: Tunisia’s money market rate edged up to 7.00% in August (from 6.99%), ending five months of stability and potentially nudging variable loan costs. Tunisia–Germany Ties: President Saied met German FM Johann Wadephul, calling for a more balanced EU–Tunisia partnership and signing/pledging nearly €100m in financing, with focus on energy transition, water and digitalisation. Food Prices in Sfax: Local market checks show peppers and tomatoes at 1.9 dinars/kg, chicken at 8.9, lamb at 60, and sea bass at 26. Tourism Signals: Tunisia’s tourism performance is described as positive in 2026, with arrivals surpassing 6 million by early August and Spanish hotel groups moving toward project implementation.

Tunisia–Germany Diplomacy: President Kais Saied met German FM Johann Wadephul in Tunis, urging a more balanced EU–Tunisia partnership and discussing cooperation in higher education, research, vocational training, energy transition, water management and digitalisation, with nearly €100m in financing agreements signed. Power & Business Continuity: Tunisia’s split-shift return starts Sept. 1, while STEG warns of intermittent power cuts from 1 p.m. to 6 p.m. in Greater Tunis, North, Central regions and Sfax/South—an operational headache for IT, refrigeration and production. Banking Rates: Tunisia’s money market rate edged up to 7% in August, after 6.99% in July, keeping the BCT key policy rate at 7%. Food Prices Watch (Sfax): Market prices in Sfax showed peppers/tomatoes at 1.9 dinars/kg, chicken 8.9, lamb 60, and sea bass 26. Fish Trade Update: Tunisia’s fishery exports rose in H1 2026 to ~14,000 tonnes worth 329m dinars; Italy led destinations with 37%. Press Freedom: CPJ urged Tunisia to release imprisoned journalists Zied el-Heni, Mourad Zghidi and Borhen Bsaies amid heatwave-related prison deaths. Migration & Security: Germany’s FM linked migration pressure to Sahel instability and smuggling networks after talks with Tunisian officials. Regional Context: Libya’s rival camps signed a UN-mediated “4+4” roadmap aiming for elections within 24 months.

Tunisia–Germany Cooperation: President Kais Saied met German FM Johann Wadephul at Carthage, agreeing to strengthen ties in higher education, research, vocational training, energy and tech innovation, and to review the Tunisia–EU partnership for a more balanced deal; the two sides also signed financing contracts worth nearly €100m for SMEs, energy, environment, digital transition and regional development. Tunisia Economy & Finance: The Central Bank of Tunisia reported the money market rate edging up to 7% in August (from 6.99% in July), keeping the policy rate at 7% since late July. Business & Markets: Tunisia’s insurance sector grew in H1 2026, with direct insurers’ turnover up 13% to 2,529.2m dinars, led by life insurance and motor still the biggest non-life line. Tax Compliance: The General Directorate of Taxes published Tunisia’s September 2026 tax calendar, listing key deadlines from Sept 15 to Sept 28 for individuals and companies. Social Pressure & Governance: A new wave of unrest is resurfacing five years after Saied’s parliament suspension, with Tunisians citing water cuts, power outages, price hikes and medicine shortages. Media Rights: CPJ urged Tunisia to release imprisoned journalists Zied el-Heni, Mourad Zghidi and Borhen Bsaies amid reports of prisoner deaths during the heatwave. Migration & Diplomacy: Wadephul called for tackling migration root causes in Africa after meeting Tunisian officials, blaming smuggling networks for deaths along routes through Tunisia and beyond.

Central Banking: Tunisia’s money market rate inched up to 7% in August, up from 6.99% in July, as the BCT kept its key policy rate unchanged at 7% on July 29. Tax Compliance: The September 2026 tax calendar sets key deadlines for individuals (Sept 15) and legal entities (Sept 21 and Sept 28), plus provisional instalments due Sept 25 and Sept 28 depending on the taxpayer category and filing method. Insurance Sector: Tunisia’s insurance market grew in H1 2026, with direct insurers’ turnover rising 13% to 2,529.2m dinars; life insurance gained share while motor and health remained key growth drivers. Energy & Water Crisis: Tunisia is again hit by extreme heat, with power cuts and water disruptions adding pressure to hospitals and households, while bottled-water shortages have triggered queues and rationing. Diplomacy & Investment: Germany’s foreign minister Johann Wadephul met President Kaïs Saïed and called for a more balanced EU partnership, while also pushing cooperation on energy, renewables and regional stability. Regional Trade & Aviation: Air Canada cancels its Montréal–Algiers route, while Libyan Express plans new direct flights to Malta, Rome and Milan from 6 September.

Tunisia Power & Water Crisis: A new heatwave pushed Kairouan to 49.8°C and coincided with rotating electricity cuts and water disruptions, while an independent doctors group warned of an “unprecedented” rise in heatstroke deaths and hospital pressure. Central Bank Watch: A new Central Bank bulletin shows Tunisia’s state financing is increasingly coming from the whole monetary system, with Central Bank direct advances to the Treasury surging sharply. Energy/Environment Project: An integrated gas extraction and treatment unit at the Errahma controlled landfill in Nabeul is about 90% complete, aiming to cut emissions and later generate green electricity from captured methane. Finance for SMEs: The EBRD expanded its risk-sharing facility with Attijari Bank Tunisia to €70m and added an ESG financing line to support corporate investment in energy efficiency, renewables and waste reduction. Construction Costs: Cement prices in Libya-linked markets eased after the AUCC Zliten factory restarted, with the average price reported around LD 82 per quintar. Trade & Business Links: Germany’s foreign minister Wadephul is set to visit Tunisia for talks with Nafti and business meetings, highlighting energy cooperation and the 70th anniversary of diplomatic ties. Global Markets: Gold slid on Fed hawkish signals while oil rose amid Strait of Hormuz tensions, a reminder of how shipping disruptions can hit energy and food costs.

Tunisia Power & Heat Emergency: A severe heat wave is pushing Tunisia’s health system to breaking point, with an independent doctors’ group reporting an “unprecedented” rise in heatstroke cases and deaths, urging an immediate health emergency as hospitals in Sfax and elsewhere face extreme pressure. Energy Crisis Watch: The electricity crisis is worsening alongside water disruptions, with poorly coordinated power cuts leaving households and businesses without reliable electricity, water pumping and even bottled drinking water access. Construction Costs: Cement prices in Libya-linked supply chains show relief: the Zliten Al-Ittihad factory cement price reportedly fell to LD 82 per quintar after restarting operations. Finance & Cash Economy: Tunisia’s cheque law is again under scrutiny as a lawmaker warns it has boosted cash circulation beyond 30 billion dinars and expanded informal payments. Banking & State Funding: Central Bank figures point to a “money printing press” effect, with direct advances to the Treasury rising sharply and commercial banks’ claims on the state climbing. Private-Sector Support: EBRD expands its risk-sharing with Attijari Bank Tunisia to €70m, plus a new €8.6m ESG facility to back corporate climate and social investments. Trade & Exports: CEPEX opens registrations for a Tunisia business mission to EXPO BÉTON in Kinshasa (Oct 7-10) to target construction and infrastructure buyers. Markets: The Tunis Stock Exchange ended July 2026 higher, with Tunindex up 0.88% despite lower transaction value.

Heatwave Pressure on Health Services: Tunisia’s independent young doctors group says hospitals are seeing an “unprecedented” rise in heatstroke cases and deaths, urging a health emergency as temperatures hit extreme levels. Power & Water Outages: President Kais Saied attributes prolonged electricity and water cuts to “premeditated acts,” while STEG and SONEDE continue publishing load-shedding and water-supply schedules. Cash Economy Watch: Tunisia’s cash in circulation has surpassed 30 billion dinars, with banknotes and coins growing faster than savings—an indicator of rising distrust and more money outside banks. Public Finance & “Money Printing”: A Central Bank bulletin shows the state is increasingly financed by the monetary system, with Central Bank direct advances to the Treasury climbing sharply. Green Waste-to-Energy: At Errahma landfill in Nabeul, an integrated gas extraction and treatment unit is about 90% complete, targeting operation in August 2026 to cut emissions and later generate green electricity. EBRD Support for Business: EBRD expands its risk-sharing facility with Attijari Bank Tunisia to €70m and adds a new US$10m ESG investment line. Mobility & Tourism: SIXT enters Tunisia via Tunifleet, launching at major airports and planning further city and coastal expansion. Trade & Markets: Tunis Stock Exchange ends July 2026 slightly up (Tunindex +0.88%) despite lower transaction value. Sports Media Deal: DAZN secures rights to broadcast LaLiga EA SPORTS across Sub-Saharan Africa for three seasons. Film Spotlight: Doha Film Institute announces eight DFI-supported films selected for the 83rd Venice festival.

Heatwave & Health Crisis: Tunisia’s independent young doctors group says hospitals are seeing an “unprecedented” surge in heatstroke deaths and admissions, urging a formal health emergency as temperatures hit near 50°C, with Sfax’s Habib Bourguiba Hospital reportedly recording 13 deaths in 24 hours. Power & Water Reliability: President Kais Saied says prolonged electricity and water cuts are linked to “premeditated acts,” after STEG and SONEDE published load-shedding schedules and water supply disruptions tied to electric pumping. Public Finance & Cash Economy: The Central Bank’s latest bulletin shows state financing increasingly flowing through the monetary system, while cash outside banks has climbed to nearly 30 billion dinars, raising concerns about distrust and the informal market. Banking & Business Credit: The EBRD expanded its risk-sharing facility with Attijari Bank Tunisia to €70m and added an ESG-focused US$10m line to back corporate sustainability investments. Trade & Investment: CEPEX opened registrations for a Tunisia business mission to EXPO BÉTON in Kinshasa (Oct 7-10) and Tunisia’s export push continues amid regional opportunities. Mobility & Tourism: SIXT enters Tunisia via a franchise with Tunifleet, launching at three airports and planning further city and coastal expansion. Markets: The Tunis Stock Exchange ended July 2026 slightly higher, with Tunindex up 0.88% despite lower transaction value.

Sports Rights & Media: DAZN secured LaLiga EA SPORTS broadcasting rights across Sub-Saharan Africa for 2026/27 to 2028/29, bringing all 380 matches per season to 48 markets on live and on-demand. Tunisia Power & Water Crisis: President Kais Saied says prolonged electricity and water cuts are driven by “premeditated acts,” after STEG published load-shedding schedules and outages disrupted water supply via electric pumps. Cash & Banking Trust: Tunisia’s cash in circulation has surpassed 30 billion dinars, with the Central Bank showing currency growing faster than savings deposits—an indicator of money staying outside banks. Parliamentary Debate on Cheques: MP Issam Chouchen argues the cheque law harmed the economy by boosting cash circulation and expanding the informal market, calling for a broader review of payment rules. Stock Market Watch: The Tunis Stock Exchange ended July 2026 with Tunindex up 0.88%, as traded volumes rose but transaction value fell. Mobility & Tourism: SIXT enters Tunisia via a franchise with Tunifleet, launching at three airports and planning expansion to key cities as tourism rebounds. Trade & Industry: Tunisia tenders for 200,000 tons of wheat and barley, while coverage also flags copper as a weak spot in the trade deficit.

Power & Water Crisis: President Kais Saied says prolonged electricity and water cuts are driven by “premeditated acts,” after STEG published load-shedding schedules and outages disrupted water supply via electric pumps. Cash Economy: ARP lawmaker Issam Chouchen warns Tunisia’s cheque law has harmed the economy by pushing more payments into cash, with cash in circulation now exceeding 30 billion dinars and boosting informality. Banking & Finance: Central Bank data shows cash outside banks rising faster than savings, with currency in circulation reaching 29.7 billion dinars by May 2026 (about 17.2% of GDP). Markets: Tunis Stock Exchange ended July 2026 up, with Tunindex gaining 0.88% despite a drop in total transaction value. Energy Sector Scrutiny: A new debate revisits STEG’s role as demand rises and network pressure grows, asking whether the utility has adapted fast enough. Trade & Food Security: Tunisia’s state grains agency launched an international tender for about 200,000 tons of wheat and feed barley ahead of the consumption season. Corporate Moves: SIXT enters Tunisia via Tunifleet at three airports, while Varun Beverages plans a Tunisia JV (75% stake) to produce and distribute beverages. Tourism & FX: Tourism and remittances since January total nearly 11 billion dinars, covering external debt service but largely funding creditors rather than new investment.